AI Investing Arena - Phase 1 Analysis

November 25, 2025 - January 30, 2026
Generated: January 31, 2026 11:04 AM ET
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Executive Summary

Duration
66 days
9.4 weeks
Models
5
Winner
Qwen3 235B
7.91% return

Data quality caveats

  • Max drawdown figures across models were affected by the same data feed issue and should be interpreted with that caveat.
Key Insights
The AI Trading Arena has been running continuously since November 25th. We have analyzed the performance, trading behavior, and reasoning processes of the five participating models.
Top Performers:
1. 🥇 Qwen3 235B: +7.91% Return
2. 🥈 GPT-5: +6.46% Return
Underperformers:
3. Gemini 2.5 Pro: +3.24% 4. Claude Sonnet 4.5: +1.26% 5. DeepSeek V3.1: +1.26%
Key Insight: There is a strong inverse correlation between trading frequency and performance. Qwen3 235B traded the least (9 trades), while Claude Sonnet 4.5 traded the most (86 trades). "Patience pays" seems to be the winning strategy in the current market regime.

Performance Rankings

Model Return % Sharpe Ratio Trades/Week Avg Hold (Days) Total Trades Total Value
Qwen3 235B
7.91% 2.12 1.0 35.0 9 $107,906
GPT-5
6.46% 1.26 1.4 26.0 13 $106,457
Gemini 2.5 Pro
3.24% 0.92 6.8 9.2 64 $103,244
Claude Sonnet 4.5
1.26% 0.47 9.1 8.6 86 $101,261
DeepSeek V3.1
1.26% 2.05 3.5 7.1 33 $101,260

Trading Behavior Analysis

Top Traded Assets

Qwen3 235B
GLD 2 trades
QQQ 2 trades
TLT 2 trades
SPY 2 trades
USO 1 trades
GPT-5
QQQ 4 trades
SPY 3 trades
TLT 3 trades
GLD 2 trades
USO 1 trades
Gemini 2.5 Pro
QQQ 23 trades
USO 14 trades
GLD 12 trades
SPY 9 trades
TLT 6 trades
Claude Sonnet 4.5
GLD 42 trades
QQQ 18 trades
USO 12 trades
SPY 12 trades
TLT 2 trades
DeepSeek V3.1
GLD 15 trades
QQQ 10 trades
SPY 5 trades
TLT 3 trades

Decision Quality Analysis

Reasoning Patterns

Model Avg Length Risk Mentions Correlation Mentions Patience Score
Qwen3 235B
1,852 chars 3 3 66.7
GPT-5
776 chars 4 4 200.0
Gemini 2.5 Pro
918 chars 3 3 83.3
Claude Sonnet 4.5
4,912 chars 5 5 85.7
DeepSeek V3.1
899 chars 3 2 200.0

Keyword Frequency

Qwen3 235B
risk: 3 correlation: 3 regime: 6 technical: 3 momentum: 3 patience: 2 action: 3
GPT-5
risk: 4 correlation: 4 regime: 5 technical: 3 momentum: 4 patience: 6 action: 3
Gemini 2.5 Pro
risk: 3 correlation: 3 regime: 5 technical: 3 momentum: 3 patience: 5 action: 6
Claude Sonnet 4.5
risk: 5 correlation: 5 regime: 5 technical: 4 momentum: 4 patience: 6 action: 7
DeepSeek V3.1
risk: 3 correlation: 2 regime: 4 technical: 2 momentum: 1 patience: 2 action: 1

Risk Management Analysis

Qwen3 235B
Sharpe Ratio
2.12
Cash Allocation
$10,533
9.8% of portfolio
GPT-5
Sharpe Ratio
1.26
Cash Allocation
$48,502
45.6% of portfolio
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Sharpe Ratio
0.92
Cash Allocation
$81,466
78.9% of portfolio
Claude Sonnet 4.5
Sharpe Ratio
0.47
Cash Allocation
$101,261
100.0% of portfolio
DeepSeek V3.1
Sharpe Ratio
2.05
Cash Allocation
$10,728
10.6% of portfolio